Who’s Behind the Revived Syrian Conflict and What’s at Stake?

The revived Syrian war has reignited with renewed intensity, drawing in regional and international powers. What started as a peaceful uprising in 2011 spiraled into a brutal conflict that has lasted more than a decade. The Syrian war, in its revived form, involves multiple factions, each with distinct goals and motivations, shaping the trajectory of the nation’s future.

As the conflict resurges, several factors — political, territorial, and ideological — fuel the ongoing violence. Understanding who’s fighting and why is crucial to grasp the complexity of the situation.

Key Players in the Revived Syrian Conflict

1. The Syrian Government (Assad Regime)
   Led by President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian government has been central to the war from the very beginning. Supported by Russia and Iran, Assad’s regime aims to maintain its grip on power over all Syrian territories. Despite significant losses and defections in the early years, Assad’s forces, with external backing, have recaptured much of the country.
2. The Syrian Opposition
   The opposition forces include various factions that range from moderate rebels to extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). These factions, although fragmented, continue to fight for control over certain territories, especially in Idlib, the last major rebel-held area. While some oppose Assad’s rule for democratic reforms, others fight due to sectarian reasons or ideological alignment with groups like al-Qaeda.
3. Kurdish Forces (Syrian Democratic Forces – SDF)
   The Kurdish forces have played a critical role in the Syrian conflict, particularly in the northeast. The SDF, led by the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), has been a key U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS. However, tensions have risen between the Kurds and Turkey, as Ankara views the Kurdish YPG as a terrorist organization. The Kurdish-led forces now control significant parts of northern Syria, which they seek to govern autonomously.
4. ISIS and Other Jihadist Groups
   The Islamic State (ISIS) emerged as a major player in Syria’s war, seizing large swaths of territory and declaring a self-proclaimed caliphate in 2014. Though ISIS has lost most of its land, it remains a potent insurgent force, waging an ongoing campaign of terror. Other jihadist groups, like al-Qaeda, also contribute to the complexity of the conflict.
5. International Powers: Russia, Iran, and the U.S.
   Russia and Iran have been Assad’s strongest backers, providing military support and strategic assistance. Russia’s intervention in 2015 turned the tide in Assad’s favor, allowing him to reclaim vital territory. Iran, through its proxy militias and the Lebanese Hezbollah, has reinforced Assad’s position, aiming to secure its influence in the region.The United States, on the other hand, has supported Kurdish forces and backed some opposition groups, though it has gradually reduced its involvement in Syria. American objectives include counterterrorism and limiting Iran’s influence. Meanwhile, Turkey’s role is defined by its opposition to Kurdish autonomy in Syria and its pursuit of defeating ISIS and other extremist factions.
6. Turkey’s Involvement
   Turkey has played a complicated role, intervening multiple times in northern Syria to curb Kurdish influence and prevent Kurdish separatism within its borders. The Turkish military has also targeted ISIS remnants, but its primary focus has often been on Syrian Kurdish groups. The tensions between Turkey and the Syrian government have only escalated over territorial disputes and regional power dynamics.

Why is the War Resurging?

1. Regional Power Struggles
   The revival of the Syrian war can be attributed to the ongoing competition for regional dominance. Countries like Iran, Russia, and Turkey have invested heavily in Syria, using it as a proxy battleground to secure their interests in the Middle East. The U.S. also has a stake in the conflict, aiming to prevent Iran’s expansion and curb the influence of extremist groups.
2. Sectarian Tensions
   The Syrian war is not just a struggle for power but also a deeply rooted sectarian conflict. Sunni-majority opposition groups battle against a government dominated by the Alawite sect, which is a Shiite offshoot. The involvement of regional powers along sectarian lines — like Iran’s Shiite support for Assad and Sunni support from Arab states for the opposition — fuels this divide.
3. ISIS Resurgence
   Despite losing its territorial control, ISIS continues to pose a serious threat in Syria, capitalizing on instability. The group is actively involved in guerrilla warfare and sporadic attacks, especially in areas where the central government or opposition factions are weakest. The revival of ISIS operations complicates efforts for stability in the region.
4. Economic and Humanitarian Struggles
   As Syria’s economy continues to collapse, millions of Syrians remain displaced or dependent on humanitarian aid. The failure of reconstruction efforts and economic sanctions imposed on Assad’s government have further exacerbated the war’s economic toll, with foreign interventions often prolonging the suffering.

The Path Forward: Can Peace Be Achieved?

The path to peace in Syria remains elusive. Multiple ceasefires have been brokered, but none have held for long. The absence of a unified opposition and the fractured nature of the country make any resolution difficult. Furthermore, the interests of regional powers often conflict, making a diplomatic solution even harder to achieve.

While the revived conflict shows no signs of abating, the possibility of a negotiated peace remains — but only if international powers agree to work together, prioritize Syria’s future over their own geopolitical aims, and address the core grievances of Syria’s various factions.